|Night Visiting Role|
Playing as Framer
- Useful in setups involving cops. The village needs to figure out if a guilty report is telling the truth or just a trick by the framer.
- Think in the mindset of a Cop. Who is most likely going to be investigated that night? That's likely the person you want to frame.
- Unless there are multiple investigative roles, it's not a good idea to frame a Cop or anyone who you know he has confirmed. Framing Millers is also, obviously, a bad idea.
Probabilities and Framers
In a game with one framer, the probability the framer frames any one role is 1/(living villagers). The probability that the cop investigates any one role is 1/(living players-living cops). The probability that the cop investigates the person whom the framer frames is 1/[(living villagers)*(living players-living cops)]. The probability that the cop's investigation gives a guilty result is at most [(living mafia)+(living framers)+(living millers)]/(living players-living cops). (If there are millers in the game, it's possible that the miller could be framed, which reduces the probability of a guilty report.)
Overall, most games with framers have only 1 framer and 0-1 millers. As a result, it is usually the case (especially early in the game, when most of the mafia are alive) that a guilty report is more likely to be mafia than it is to be a framed villager or miller. Therefore, statistically speaking, guilty reports should be lynched early in the game as long as the number of mafia exceeds the number of framers and millers, and when town is most likely to have a mislynch.